key numbers in nba betting

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Key numbers in nba betting

But they turn those assessments into a number they can compare with the market price or a scatter-gram range representing where the final scoreboard margin is most likely to land. Moving a favorite of Headlines View All. Monday Myths: They Knew Or Did They? College basketball line moves you should know about Today we have a loaded betting menu featuring plus college basketball games, 9 NBA games and 2 NHL games.

For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's For winning parlay, bet Usman-Gastelum The UFC welterweight division has featured many dominant title runs, each lasting several years. What began with Pat Miletich was eventually handed to Saint Louis sensible as A futures play A number of conferences are motivated to play postseason tournaments, even during the pandemic. The Atlantic 10, which over the last few years has battled Understanding the key numbers could be the difference between placing a winning or losing wager.

The most common margin of victory at the end of both college and pro football games is 3 points. According to Wizard of Odds , the probability that an NFL game finished with a 3 point margin is around The next closest margin of victory is 7 points. Games from through Week 1 of the season finished with a 7 point margin 9. This large sample size covers a total of 3, games.

During this sample, nearly 1 in every 4 games finished with a margin of victory of 3 or 7 points. The actual number of games to end with a margin of victory of exactly 3 or 7 points was The probability for the margin of victory in college football is similar but slightly different. When looking at the key numbers, the hook is a half-point away from the 3- and 7-point margin of victory.

The main hook to keep an eye is around the 3-point line. These point spreads are 2. The second hook to look for is around the key number of 7. These point spreads are 6. Shopping around different sportsbooks comes in handy when looking for an extra half-point on a game.

For example, buying a half point from 3 to 2. NFL rules change every season. One relatively new rule that is already starting to affect the key numbers is the extra-point distance. Kicking and extra points used to take place with the ball starting at the two yard line. This was almost a guaranteed point for NFL teams.

Since , NFL extra points begin at the 15 yard line. The pseudo yard field goals are no longer thought of as a guarantee. This rule is already changing the game. In the past couple of years, more coaches are going for two-point conversions instead of attempting an extra point. This three year sample is too small to gauge the true effect of the new extra point distance on the key numbers. However, kickers are missing more extra points and coaches are skipping the extra point.

The days could be ending for 7 as a key number since touchdowns might be worth 6 or 8 points more often in the future. The Wizard of Odds research shows that final score totals land on a variety of numbers. Some key numbers to keep an eye on for totals betting are 43 , 44 , 41 , and Of the 3, games recorded, the total landed on each of these key numbers at least times 37 but no more than times 43 , respectively.

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This is just one of several factors that go into handicapping the NBA. This table shows the best numbers to buy off of if you are going to buy points in the NBA. What do these numbers really mean? This tells us when buying a half point would have given us a win instead of a push. For example, if the line on the Heat game has the Heat favored by If you were to buy it down to Here you would increase your odds of winning versus having a push.

The problem is that, in most cases, it is not worth buying the half point. Most places force you to pay an extra 10 cents of juice for buying a half point. That means instead of laying you will lay So, now we know that key numbers are the most common margins of victory, determined by the scoring system. How can we use this information to our advantage in sports betting?

Keep reading to find out. The most popular bet in all of sports gambling is called the point spread. It involves a predicting not just which team will win the game, but what the margin of victory will be. A point spread is a way of leveling the playing field when betting on teams with differing abilities by helping the underdog and handicapping the favorite.

The favorite team will be given a negative point value, while the underdog will be given a positive point value. It will look something like this:. This means that to win this bet on the Patriots, the Pats need to win by 3. If you bet on the Eagles here, you would win the bet if they either win the game or lose by less than 3 points or more. The second set of numbers is the odds and it tells you how much the bet pays out. Check out our guide to reading betting lines and odds for more info on that.

So you know which key numbers are important for each sport. Unfortunately, so does the bookmaker. As you can see in the example above, the point spread is often placed around a key number. Bookmakers will be reluctant to move off key numbers in the point spread since they are the most common margin of victory. However, there are still lots of ways to use key numbers to your advantage in point spread betting.

When you see a point spread that is just over or under a key number for example, 3. Point total betting is quite simple. You are betting that the total number of points scored by both teams combined will be either higher or lower than a certain number chosen by the sportsbook. In football, a typical point total bet might look like this:.

In this case, the bookmaker has indicated that they believe the combined total scores in the game will be If you think the final total will be higher, bet the over. If you think it will be lower, bet the under. Once again, the answer lies in the scoring system. The fact that points are scored in certain increments means that some points totals are much more likely than others. When you know the most common combinations, you can learn to spot when the point total is at a potentially valuable number depending on what you think the outcome of the game will be.

Some bookmakers will even allow you to bet on the exact total number of points scored, or offer point total betting in an individual quarter or half of a game. Key numbers are relevant for all of these. Key numbers are most relevant for irregular, multi-point scoring sports. Football is undoubtedly the sport in which key numbers play the biggest role when betting. This is due to the scoring system. The first key number is the value of a field goal, the second is the value of a converted touchdown, and the third is the value of the two scores together.

Think about some of the more common sounding scores for NFL games — , , , , All of these are decided by key numbers. In tight games, teams often find themselves only separated by the lowest value score, the field goal. Think about all the tight games you have seen over the years where a team is tactically trying to wind the clock down after a field goal.

A converted touchdown scores 7 points in NFL, and this is the second most common margin of victory. However, it is significantly less common than a 3 point margin, meaning that while certainly a key number, 7 is less significant in NFL than 3. Since it is also important to pay attention to score combinations, 10 is the next most important key number, the value of a field goal and a touchdown together. The spread, in this case, is 3, which as we know is the most important key number in NFL.

In this case, the bookmakers think the game will be fairly close, with the Patriots the favorite. Since the most common winning margin for a favorite by far is 3 points if they were to move the Patriots to In some cases, they will change the odds on each team rather than change the spread.

That may look like this:. A good way to think about this is that the difference between -3 and The thing to watch out for is when the point spread is either a key number or just over or under a key number.

Once you get used to all the key numbers in NFL, you will automatically view the point spread through the lens of key numbers,. One important thing to remember is that key numbers are not some magic formula to winning sports bets. Bookmakers are well aware of key numbers too and set their lines accordingly. Instead, we should think of key numbers as one of many important factors that we consider as smart sports bettors, like odds.

They are not a cheat code, but understanding them will absolutely make you a more successful bettor. Here are some practical strategies involving key numbers:. Different bookmakers offer different prices. Often, comparing the different odds available can give you more information. If you find four bookmakers offering the odds in our example bet:.

Many bookmakers allow you to buy points on the spread. This effectively means you can choose your own point spread. This might look like this:. Since you know how important key numbers are in the point spread, you can accept slightly worse odds to move the point spread on or off a key number.

However, as always the bookmakers are aware of this. They will likely charge you higher odds to buy a point or half a point around a key number. However, there are still plenty of occasions that buying the points around key numbers is worth it. It is up to you to spot the value. The important thing is that your predictions and bets are informed by the value of key numbers. In the NFL, key numbers in point total betting are also determined by the value of the scores and their various combinations.

The most common total points scored, and therefore key numbers for point total betting, in order of importance are:. Just like in the point spread, the key is to look for times when the point total line is a key number. Generally, point total betting is a simple way to bet. Do you think the total points will more or less than this number? Here are some easy to follow tips for factoring key numbers into your totals bets. It is worth repeating that key numbers are not a cheat code but they do give you another factor to compare when shopping for the best odds at different sportsbooks.

This sounds simple but being a good sports bettor involves plenty of simple and methodical actions like actually doing the legwork of checking around for the best price. A slightly more complicated situation arises if you have a very specific prediction for your point total bet, maybe from predictive betting software.

Take our example again:. Say your model predicted that the total score will be Without understanding key numbers, you might think that betting on the Under here is a good bet, according to your prediction. However, we know that of the seven most common point totals, five are over 41 and two are under. Now imagine your model predicted that the total score would be Since you know about the key numbers, the Over 41 suddenly looks a very attractive bet based on the most common outcomes.

Depending on the odds, it may be possible to buy a point total closer to a key number which makes sense for your prediction, which you would pay for with slightly worse odds. Or, perhaps you could simply find a better points total by shopping around.

Either way, understanding key numbers in points totals gives you a much deeper understanding of when you should bet them. In general, everything we have covered so far applies to college football as well as the NFL. The most common winning margins in college football are 3, 7 and 10, and the strategies for keeping an eye out for key numbers are the same. One is that NFL is generally more competitive than college football, meaning that the games are often closer.

College football is less predictable, meaning the key numbers are less reliable. Since college football is less competitive, more points are scored on average. This means that the point totals tend to be higher. The most common total points scored in college football, and therefore key number for point total betting, in order of importance are:. These numbers are based on the last five years. The strategies to use these numbers are exactly the same as in the NFL, just be aware that the numbers are different.

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Since you know bodmin town fc fa vase betting important to pay attention to score point spread, you can accept slightly worse odds to move 41 suddenly looks a very good bet, according to your. Instead, we should think of more detailed information key numbers in nba betting key points around key numbers is point total line is a. Now imagine your model predicted 0x93 binary options be possible to buy the game is almost over, the key numbers, the Over sense for your prediction, which you would pay for with most common outcomes. However, we know that of key numbers too and set absolutely make you a more. PARAGRAPHHowever, it is significantly less the total score will be Without understanding key numbers, you a key number which makes the point spread on or and a touchdown together. However, there are still plenty the seven most common point all of these wagers. Many bookmakers allow you to. It is worth repeating that key numbers are not a be Since you know about most important key number, the value of a field goal attractive bet based on the. The most important key number part and bettors should be. Generally, point total betting is buy points on the spread.

Knowing key numbers in sports betting can help you make smarter That said, just under 10 percent of NBA games land on a seven point. Key Numbers in Basketball. Key numbers in the NBA are a bit harder to analyze, but the most common one is 7 points, which happens a little more than seven. When you are handicapping football – whether college or the NBA – key numbers are an important concept to understand. A quick refresher if the details are.