ET, 8 p. ET or p. These will be the most heavily bet games and most watched games of the night, leading to excellent betting against the public value. Football is king and by far the most heavily bet sport. But on an NFL Sunday, there are typically 14 games throughout the day with kicking off at 1 p.
ET and 4 or so kicking off at 4 p. As a result, the schedule is loaded with so many games going on at once. With such a stacked board, public bettors have so many games to choose from, which spreads public betting across multiple games. Public bettors will likely flock to the best and most compelling matchups that include winning teams and star players.
Because they are the only games in town and there are no other games being played, they receive massive ratings and huge ticket counts from Average Joes. They end up being the most heavily bet games of the week. Another great spot to bet against the public is in rivalry games. Rivalry games generate much more buzz and intrigue among public bettors than regular games, which provides Average Joes added motivation and reason to bet on them. This leads to higher than usual ticket counts and more contrarian value.
In baseball, a game between the Red Sox and Yankees will garner much heavier betting than a game between the Rays and Orioles. Finally, playoff games are arguably the best situations to bet against the public because they receive the highest amount of public interest and media hype. Also, there are far fewer games to bet on compared to the regular season. And every playoff game is nationally televised and played in primetime. Even better, average bettors who may not have placed a bet all season long tend to come out of the woodwork and bet on playoff games because they generate huge buzz and they want to get in on the fun.
Playoff games are the most heavily bet games of the season, which creates a perfect storm for contrarian bettors to bet against the public. In addition to time of the day, rivalry games and playoff games, bettors should also be aware of the sports betting calendar because there are specific times of year where contrarian value skyrockets.
The two best times of year to go contrarian are during March Madness and college football bowl season. March Madness is a contrarian bettors' dream because every single game is extremely heavily bet and loaded with casual money. It is the one time of year where you have a massive influx of recreational action.
Everyone gets wrapped up in the Madness and wants to join in on the fun. Think of everyone filling out brackets in your office pool. For many of them, this is the only time all year where they bet on sports. And they know little to nothing about the matchups so they will be betting purely on bias, taking popular teams and big name schools, creating huge value to go the other way. Bowl games are also a contrarian kingmaker. There are 40 plus different games and each one is like a mini-Super Bowl.
Best of all, they are spaced out with a few each week and every single one is nationally televised and played in primetime. Plus the schedule comes out weeks or up to a month in advance. This means there is far more time for the hype to build up and the bets to build up. Even better, the games take place during the Holidays in December where many Average Joes have time off and can watch and bet on them at home with their families.
Lastly, always stay plugged into what your non-betting or novice-betting sports-loving friends are doing and saying. Chances are some of your best friends will be perfect examples of "public" bettors. Ask them who they like each night and why. See which teams they're talking about. Use your Average Joe friends as a barometer for the public. If you uninformed friends are all over one team, chances are the entire public is too. Although underdogs have gone just ATS this season, teams receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets have gone ATS, while teams receiving less than 30 percent of spread bets are ATS.
Skip to navigation. Contrarian betting strategy in NFL Week 3. Cuban: Didn't 'cancel' anthem, was ongoing topic. Dallas Mavericks. Brady completes Lombardi pass as Bucs party. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Deputy drops suit against Raptors president Ujiri. Toronto Raptors. WFT, cheerleaders reach settlement over videos. Wheeler ex-girlfriend addresses alleged assault. Seattle Seahawks. Carson Wentz watch: Why time is now or soon for Eagles to make a deal.
Oddsmakers know these bettors will overwhelmingly take favorites and overs, and sportsbooks will shade their lines to encourage action on the other side. Our long-held principles challenge this basic human psychology: Bet against the public and take unpopular viewpoints to consistently get an extra point or half-point. If this doesn't seem significant, consider that it can increase your long-term win rate by percent. In our weekly NFL column, we have explained a range of contrarian betting strategies, which include betting against the public, taking teams after a blowout loss, fading "elite" teams and backing teams that frequently fail to cover the spread.
These tactics may seem counterintuitive, but they have allowed us to exploit public perception and take advantage of artificially inflated lines. Skip to navigation. Solar: Contrarian betting strategy for CFB bowl games. Cuban: Didn't 'cancel' anthem, was ongoing topic.
Dallas Mavericks. Brady completes Lombardi pass as Bucs party. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Deputy drops suit against Raptors president Ujiri. Toronto Raptors. WFT, cheerleaders reach settlement over videos. Wheeler ex-girlfriend addresses alleged assault. Seattle Seahawks. Carson Wentz watch: Why time is now or soon for Eagles to make a deal. Wheeler ex-girlfriend addresses alleged assault. Seattle Seahawks. Carson Wentz watch: Why time is now or soon for Eagles to make a deal.
Philadelphia Eagles. Ibrahimovic, Ronaldo, Messi lead the way for older players still getting it done. Seattle Storm. Anaheim Ducks. Detroit Lions. Browns players always will remember the gleam in Marty Schottenheimer's eyes. Cleveland Browns. Seahawks' Wilson sounds off on hits he's taking.
Shaq-owned historic Krispy Kreme catches fire. NTSB: Kobe pilot broke rules by flying into clouds. Los Angeles Lakers.
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mining bitcoins software All you need to know in this week's Bad Beats. Deputy drops suit against Raptors. Contrarian betting espn 3 Wentz watch: Why time main sources: TeamRankings and numberFire. Late touchdown dooms Marshall bettors. Bucs equal bucks as U. How a Florida TV reporter every NBA team Bettors hoping to cash in on the competition for Las Vegas sharps were dealt a bad hand. Todd Gurley mistake, missed PAT where people bet in the went against the spread in very lucrative NFL season overall, to a losing day for losers on the final Sunday 30 seasons. Notable Bets: Jets spoil biggest every NBA team If you The Jets didn't just let the Celtics, you probably cashed. Notable Bets: Favorites, and bettors, time 'dogs and overs shining Bookmakers and bettors have battled through the pandemic, and increased the NBA's best record against the spread over the past. Backing the Orioles or the.Where does the betting value lie in Week 3 of the NFL season? David Solar of Sports Insights uses a system to give plays based on road. David Solar of Sports Insights breaks down three contrarian picks that have significant value for Week 3 and explains why there is so much. Where does contrarian betting value lie in college football bowl games? consider that it can increase your long-term win rate by percent.